2020 is too unusual, with too many variables, and we have witnessed too much history.
Anyway, many people did not expect that the Trumps were diagnosed on the bones of the election. In the latest news, Trump has developed fever and other symptoms and has worn a mask to the US Walter Reed Military Hospital for further treatment.
On October 2, the global stock market just started to plummet, and then rebounded, but the Nasdaq index still plummeted by 2.22%, and oil prices plummeted by more than 4%.
The Chinese are still enjoying a long vacation, and the world has undergone major changes. We must be wary of at least three black swans.
Black Swan One, the war of naga.
Although the whole world is calling for a ceasefire, on the other side of Asia, a tragic war continues.
Both Azerbaijan and Armenia refused to cease fire. Both countries are mobilizing for full-scale war, and almost all adult men have been drafted into the army.
In the past few years, there have been many wars, but it is still very, very rare for two countries to start fighting in this way and to mobilize such a full-scale war.
In the Naka area, which is the focus of the competition, the authorities announced that another 54 soldiers were killed this weekend. The total number of deaths now exceeds 150; in a mountain col, at least 11 civilians have been killed and 60 injured.
The Azerbaijani side did not announce the casualties of soldiers, but claimed that at least 20 civilians were killed and 55 injured in Armenian artillery.
This fierce war also reminds us that the method of war may have completely changed. Because many people may be like me, the biggest impact should not be the news of the war, but the pictures of drones hitting tanks-tanks are like toys. They are locked to the target from high altitude by the drone and then relaxed destroy.
The tank, once the king of land warfare, now seems to be a living target.
However, the consequences of the war are still very tragic.
The biggest black swan in this war may be the oil crisis and ecological disaster that erupt at any time.
Don’t forget that Azerbaijan is an important oil-producing country, and an important oil pipeline to Turkey and Europe is not far from the battle zone of Nakah.
Cannonballs do not have eyes. If the eyes are red and artillery fire hits this pipeline, it will first be an ecological disaster, and Europe will also face a new oil crisis.
This black swan must be guarded. Don’t fight the war.
The second black swan, Britain broke the contract again.
In the past 5 years, I feel that the UK has been tossing, with one round of referendum after another, and then an endless Brexit, with three prime ministers. Finally, now Brexit seems to have been done, but no one knows, the flat ground is making waves again.
The EU has issued two ultimatums in a row.
The first message is that the Domestic Market Act passed by the House of Commons on September 29 requires the United Kingdom to withdraw these terms before September 30 because it is contrary to the Brexit treaty that has entered into force.
The British did not respond, and the EU was angry.
Then, there is a second letter , which is limited to the United Kingdom to respond within one month. Otherwise, the EU will take legal action and finally let the European Court of Justice decide.
The focus of the dispute is the status of Northern Ireland.
Don’t forget that the United Kingdom wants to leave the European Union, but Northern Ireland firmly advocates staying in the European Union.
Once Brexit is completed, if a border is established between Northern Ireland and Ireland, the Northern Irish will definitely not agree, then there must be a chaos in the world, explosions and blood will come back.
How to do?
The British are also racking their brains. According to the agreement reached between Johnson and the European Union, it may be said that the British finally learned from China and implemented “one country, two systems.”
The defense and diplomacy of Northern Ireland will still belong to the United Kingdom; however, Northern Ireland will implement a special customs area and treat it differently from the British Isles.
But the least authentic thing about the British is that they like to make small moves. The British Parliament recently passed the “Domestic Market Act” with the intent to abolish special provisions concerning Northern Ireland.
The EU has turned its face. Before the ink on the agreement dries, the UK will come to regret it?
Thus, the quarrel began.
At worst, the United Kingdom and the European Union will break up unhappily and the agreement will be abandoned, which means that the United Kingdom will completely hard leave the European Union, and the world market will be a stormy sea.
This is really a big black swan.
But no matter how big the black swan is, it can’t keep up with the third one recently. Trump was diagnosed with it, and now he has to go to hospital…
Anyway, the stock market plummeted and the oil market plummeted.
The capital market is most afraid of this kind of uncertainty.
Because this brings about a series of major variables that we cannot predict.
What about the US election? Do you not argue in the next debate?
In case Trump is not in good health, according to the U.S. Constitution, Vice President Pence takes over the power; in case Pence is not in good health, it is the old lady Pelosi of the Democratic Party…
Read a comment from the BBC and say:
There are still 32 days before the US election, and the “October Surprise” is here as promised. Trump’s condition will surely bring huge recoil and add variables to the election that is full of unknowns.Trump’s past remarks on the epidemic and epidemic prevention will be strictly scrutinized again. The public will question whether he underestimated the threat of the virus. Whether in the United States or in the White House, he failed to comply with the regulations of scientific epidemic prevention, putting the team and national security at risk.However, for the Democratic Party and Biden, Trump’s diagnosis is not entirely good news.When the country is experiencing upheaval, the American public usually joins forces with the President to overcome difficulties. The illness of the Trumps will also affect the hearts of American voters. In the next few weeks, how the Democrats continue to criticize the Trump administration for its inadequate epidemic prevention while avoiding being seen as a stumbling block will be a major test for the Biden campaign…